Health and Economic Impacts of Vehicle Fuel Types and Energy Sources in Japan’s Top Ten Cities
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C, Dinesh
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C, Dinesh. 2023. Health and Economic Impacts of Vehicle Fuel Types and Energy Sources in Japan’s Top Ten Cities. Master's thesis, Harvard University Division of Continuing Education.Abstract
Japan's roadmap to the "Beyond-Zero" carbon emissions target starts with a commitment to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 46% from 2013 levels by 2030. Transportation accounts for 18.5% of the total carbon emissions; within this sector, 86.2% of GHG emissions come from road traffic (Eco-Mo Foundation, 2019). With 94% of passenger vehicles in Japan being gasoline or hybrid (JADA, 2021), they account for 49.6% of transport emissions. Therefore, fuel efficiency and fleet composition of passenger vehicles play a crucial role in achieving Japan’s sustainability goals.The central research question of this study was: What are the impacts of different scenarios of various fleet compositions and fuel efficiencies of passenger vehicles on carbon emissions, population health, and economic benefits in the largest cities in Japan until 2030? Reducing GHG emissions positively affects health and has significant economic benefits (Fernández Astudillo et al., 2019). In this study, health impacts were measured in DALYs (Disability Adjusted Life Years), where 1 DALY represents the loss of the equivalent of one year of full health. The specific questions addressed were: What would be the impact on emission levels of different scenarios of fleet composition and fuel efficiency of passenger vehicles? What are the forecasted health impacts in Japan, measured in DALYs, under different scenarios?
To answer the above questions, various data points collected by the Automobile Inspection and Registration Information Association (AIRIA 2022) were used. The AIRIA data included the total number of vehicles in each of the ten most populated cities in Japan, the share of conventional gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICV), hybrid vehicles (HV), and electric vehicles (EV), and the population of each city. The collected data formed the baseline scenario of this research. The results obtained from the baseline scenario were compared with the results of three modified scenarios. Each scenario has different assumptions concerning the vehicle mix composition and the share of renewable energy used to power the vehicles. The initial hypothesis assumed that emission reductions and health benefits would directly correlate with the city's population and the number of passenger vehicles in the city. In addition, using 100% of renewable energy would increase the monetized benefits by 50% compared to the baseline scenario.
This research demonstrated a strong correlation between all calculated values with the population and the total number of vehicles in each city. Tokyo, with the highest number of vehicles and population, would increase avoided carbon emissions from 471,485 MT CO2e in scenario one (increasing the percentage of lower emission vehicles in the mix) to 3,342,598.9 MT CO2e in scenario three (100% EV and 100% renewable energy) with annual health benefits of $4.23 billion. Other calculated values, such as DALYs and the number of prevented deaths, strongly correlated with the total number of vehicles and fleet composition.
Modeling future vehicle fleet composition scenarios of passenger vehicles with energy sources is vital for gaining new insights into policy alternatives. The simulation of different scenarios of fleet composition and energy sources can aid in understanding which policies should be implemented for Japan to achieve its 2030 emissions target and optimize health and economic benefits.
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