Convergent Evolution in Aspiring Dictatorships: Developing a Generalized Theory of the Strategy Used to Undermine Democratic Development in Middle Hybrid Regimes
Citation
Honigstein, Michael. 2022. Convergent Evolution in Aspiring Dictatorships: Developing a Generalized Theory of the Strategy Used to Undermine Democratic Development in Middle Hybrid Regimes. Master's thesis, Harvard University Division of Continuing Education.Abstract
This thesis develops and tests a generalized theory of democratic backsliding. It proposes that only three factors, ethno-nationalist rhetoric, control of the judiciary, and control of the media are both necessary and sufficient for democratic backsliding to occur in hybrid regimes. I argue that an aspiring dictator can come to power in a democracy with ethno-nationalist rhetoric that separates their popular support from their actions and policies, and they can then hold power by controlling the two institutions capable of exposing the gap between their populist rhetoric and their authoritarian actions: the judiciary and the media.Building on the work of Steven Levitsky and others, I posit aspiring dictators in a variety of cultural and geographic contexts will use the same set of tools to undercut democratic development so they can take and hold power. The reason is that during the third wave of democratization, which began in 1974 but picked up significant momentum after the Cold War, the international community developed similar approaches to promoting and protecting democracy worldwide. Consequently, I argue aspiring dictators independently develop similar strategies to counter these similar efforts in a process analogous to convergent evolution in biology.
After surveying the current literature on hybrid regimes and democratic backsliding, I undertake a plausibility probe to assess the utility of the theory. I look at four case study countries where democratic backsliding occurred with a high variance in geography, history, and culture: Hungary under Viktor Orbán, Venezuela under Hugo Chávez, Sri Lanka under Mahinda Rajapaksa, and Turkey under Recep Erdoğan. The case studies examine how each of the countries used these three factors—ethno-nationalist rhetoric, control of the judiciary, and control of the media—to enable an authoritarian-minded leader to take and hold power. It also considers other potential variables that contributed to each aspiring dictator’s success, concluding that they are either not necessary or not sufficient.
The results of the study are promising. No conclusions can be drawn due to the sample size and how the case studies were selected, but the process in each of the cases support the theory; in all four countries the leader came to power with ethno-nationalist rhetoric and then moved to control the judiciary and the media, especially when their popularity was threatened. The next step in developing this theory would be a large-N quantitative study combined with additional case studies to further examine whether these three factors are both necessary and sufficient, or whether other factors either can, or must, replace or supplement them.
A parsimonious theory on democratic backsliding that can be generalized across a broad number of countries would be useful to both activists and governments interested in promoting democracy. It could help early identification of countries at a high risk for democratic backsliding, help focus limited resources on the most critical institutions for preventing backsliding, and help preserve hard-won democratic gains around the world.
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