Browsing HKS Faculty Scholarship by Keyword "Decision Sciences"
Now showing items 1-17 of 17
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The Behavior of Savings and Asset Prices When Preferences and Beliefs are Heterogeneous
(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2011)Movements in asset prices are a major risk confronting individuals. This paper establishes new asset pricing results when agents differ in risk preference, time preference and/or expectations. It shows that risk tolerance ... -
The CAPS Prediction System and Stock Market Returns
(2009)We analyze the informational content of more than 1.2 million stock picks provided by more than 60,000 individuals from November 1, 2006 to October 31, 2007 on the CAPS open access website created by the Motley Fool company ... -
The "CAPS" Prediction System and Stock Market Returns
(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2011)We study the predictive power of approximately 2.5 million stock picks submitted by individual users to the “CAPS” website run by the Motley Fool company (www.caps.fool.com). These picks prove to be surprisingly informative ... -
Consumer Learning and Hybrid Vehicle Adoption
(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2010)We study the diffusion of hybrid vehicles among consumers. Using data on sales of 11 different models over seven years, we identify the effect of the penetration rate – total cumulative hybrid sales per capita – on new ... -
Disgust Promotes Disposal: Souring the Status Quo
(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard Uinversiy, 2010)Humans naturally dispose of objects that disgust them. Is this phenomenon so deeply embedded that even incidental disgust – i.e., where the source of disgust is unrelated to a possessed object – triggers disposal? Two ... -
Dopamine and Risk Choices in Different Domains: Findings Among Series Tournament Bridge Players
(2010)Individuals differ significantly in their willingness to take risks, partly due to genetic differences. We explore how risk taking behavior correlates with different versions of the dopamine receptor D4 gene (DRD4). We ... -
The Elasticity of Trust: How to Promote Trust in the Arab Middle East and the United States
(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2010)To trust is to risk. When we lend someone money, we make ourselves vulnerable, hoping or expecting that the borrower will reward our trust and return the money at a later stage, possibly with interest or a reciprocal favor ... -
Following through on Good Intentions: The Power of Planning Prompts
(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2012)We study whether prompts to form and recall a plan can increase individuals’ responsiveness to reminders to make and attend beneficial appointments. At four companies, all employees due for a colonoscopy were randomly ... -
Measuring the Efficacy of Leaders to Assess Information and Make Decisions in a Crisis: The C-LEAD Scale.
(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2009)Based on literature and expert interviews, we developed the Crisis Leader Efficacy in Assessing and Deciding scale (C-LEAD) to capture the efficacy of leaders to assess information and make decisions in a public health and ... -
The Methodology of Normative Policy Analysis
(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2011)Policy analyses frequently clash. Their disagreements stem from many sources, including models, empirical estimates, and values such as who should have standing and how different criteria should be weighted. We provide a ... -
The Methodology of Positive Policy Analysis
(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2010)Policy analyses frequently clash. Their disagreements stem from many sources, such as models, empirical estimates, values, who should have standing, and weighting of different criteria. We provide a simple taxonomy of ... -
Motivating Voter Turnout by Invoking the Self
(National Academy of Sciences, 2011)Three randomized experiments found that subtle linguistic cues have the power to increase voting and related behavior. The phrasing of survey items was varied to frame voting either as the enactment of a personal identity ... -
The Online Laboratory: Conducting Experiments in a Real Labor Market
(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2010)Online labor markets have great potential as platforms for conducting experiments, as they provide immediate access to a large and diverse subject pool and allow researchers to conduct randomized controlled trials. We argue ... -
Social Class and (Un)ethical Behavior: Evidence from a Large Population Sample
(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2012)We test whether and how membership in the upper class affects ethical behavior in a large representative population sample. Using objective measures of socioeconomic status to define class, we find no evidence of a general ... -
Trust and the Reference Points for Trustworthiness in Gulf and Western Countries
(2009)Why is private investment so low in Gulf compared to Western countries? We investigate cross-regional differences in trust and reference points for trustworthiness as possible factors. Experiments controlling for cross-regional ... -
Using Implementation Intentions Prompts to Enhance Influenza Vaccination Rates
(National Academy of Sciences, 2011)We evaluate the results of a field experiment designed to measure the effect of prompts to form implementation intentions on realized behavioral outcomes. The outcome of interest is influenza vaccination receipt at free ... -
Variable Temptations and Black Mark Reputations
(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2011)In a world of imperfect information, reputations often guide the sequential decisions to trust and to reward trust. We consider two-player situations, where one player – the truster – decides whether to trust, and the other ...