Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?
Citation
Campbell, John Y. and N. Gregory Mankiw. 1987. Are output fluctuations transitory?. Quarterly Journal of Economics 102(4): 857-880.Abstract
According to the conventional view of the business cycle, fluctuations in output represent temporary deviations from trend. The purpose of this paper is to question this conventional view. If fluctuations in output are dominated by temporary deviations from the natural rate of output, then an unexpected change in output today should not substantially change one's forecast of output in, say, five or ten years. Our examination of quarterly postwar United States data leads us to be skeptical about this implication. The data suggest that an unexpected change in real GNP of 1 percent should change one's forecast by over 1 percent over a long horizon.Terms of Use
This article is made available under the terms and conditions applicable to Other Posted Material, as set forth at http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:dash.current.terms-of-use#LAACitable link to this page
http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:3122545
Collections
- FAS Scholarly Articles [18304]
Contact administrator regarding this item (to report mistakes or request changes)