Browsing by Author "Friedman, Jeffrey Allan"
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Assessing Uncertainty in Intelligence
Friedman, Jeffrey Allan; Zeckhauser, Richard Jay (John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2012)This article addresses the challenge of managing uncertainty when producing estimative intelligence. Much of the theory and practice of estimative intelligence aims to eliminate or reduce uncertainty, but this is often ... -
Cumulative Dynamics and Strategic Assessment: U.S. Military Decision Making in Iraq, Vietnam, and the American Indian Wars
Friedman, Jeffrey Allan (2013-09-18)This dissertation examines why military decision makers struggle to evaluate their policies and why they often stick to unsuccessful strategies for so long. The core argument is that strategic assessment involves genuine ...